中国第三产业内部结构的演变规律

硕士生：李惠娟
指导教师：李江帆 教授
硕士论文通过时间：2003.06

　　改革开放以来，由于国家对第三产业的发展日益重视，我国第三产业进入了一个新的发展时期。从1978年到2000年，第三产业的平均增长速度达到18.3%，比同期GDP15.8%的增长速度高2.5个百分点。第三产业的从业人员从1978年的4890万人增长到2000年的17142万人，平均每年增加5.9%。虽然我国的第三产业发展很快，但无论与发达国家还是发展中国家相比，我国的第三产业的发展还是严重滞后的。造成我国第三产业发展滞后，原因有很多，既与我国的整体经济落后有关，也与我国僵化的体制有关，也与我国对第三产业在国民经济中的地位作用的认识偏差有关但是笔者认为，最主要原因在于我国第三产业内部结构不合理，且升级缓慢。

　　本文主要研究中国自建国以来的第三产业内部结构的演变规律，并与国际第三产业内部结构变动的一般趋势相比较，从而发现我国第三产业内部结构存在的问题，并针对这些问题提出相应的政策措施。

　　全文共分为三章。第一章：讲述第三产业内部结构的概念、研究对象及研究方法，以及第三产业的内部划分，影响第三产业的主要因素，国际上第三产业内部结构演变的一般规律，并进行了实证分析。第二章：从产出结构、就业结构、投资结构、结构效益这四个方面回顾了中国自建国以来的第三产业内部结构的变动趋势，并与发达国家以及发展中国家第三产业内部结构变动的一般规律相比较，发现我国进入90年代后第三产业内部结构的变动态势不合理，主要表现在新兴服务业发育不足，传统服务业仍占主导地位。第三章：针对我国第三产业内部结构存在的问题，提出一系列的政策措施来优化我国的第三产业内部结构，并对我国未来10年的第三产业内部结构的变化趋势进行了前瞻性的预测。

　　本文主要运用的分析方法有：动态分析法、比较分析法、规范分析和实证分析相结合。

　　关键词：第三产业；第三产业内部结构；结构优化；新兴服务业、传统服务业；产出结构；就业结构；投资结构。

Abstract

Since Reform and Opening was undertaken,our government had paid more attention to the development of the tertiary industry,therefore, the tertiary industry in China had entered a new developing epoch. From 1978 to 2000,the annual average growth rate of the tertiary industry has reached 18.3%,compared to the growth rate of GDP ,it is 2.5 percent point higher.The number of the labour of the tertiary industry has droped from 48.9 million in1978 to 171.4 million in 2000,and there is 5.9 percent point increase annually.Though it is fast for the development of the tertiary industry ,but compared with the developed countries and the developing countries,the tertiary industry in China is in low level state.Why is the tertiary industry in low level state?In my opinion,there is many seasons.Firstly,the whole economic of our country has fallen behind many countries.Secondly,the system of organization in China is rigid.Thirdly, the government hasn’t attach importance to the tertiary industry.The most important reason is the disequilibrium of internal structure of the tertiary industry in China,which has been changing slowly.

The article is aimed at expounding the law of the changes of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China,at the same time,a world-wide comparison of the internal structure of the tertiary industry is made in order to find out the questions of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China.Finally,taking into consideration of those questions of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China,some policies of structural upgrade and structural coordination are put forward.

The article consist of three chapters.In the first chapter,the author introduces the concept of the internal structure of the tertiary industry、research object、research methods and the classification of the tertiary industry ,and the main factors which influence the internal structure of the tertiary industry ,and the international law of the changes of the internal structure of the tertiary industry which based on the positive analysis.In the second chapter,the author makes a positive analysis of the changes of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China.Firstly,the author reviews the trend of the tertiary internal structural changes in China in the past 50 years ,from four aspects including output structure、labour force structure、assets structure、technology structure .Compared internationally,the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China is in a state of disequilibrium.The state of imbalance can be mainly expressed in the fact that the newly developing service trades are in a low state,while the traditional service trades grow too fast.In the third chapter,taking into consideration of the questions of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China,a series of effective policies are put forward in order to make the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China upgrading and coordinating.At last,the author makes a forecasting of the internal structural changes of the tertiary industry in China in the next 15 years.

The methods of structural analysis taken is dynamic state analysis、norm analysis、positive analysis、comparative analysis.

Key words: the tertiary industry;the internal structure of the tertiary industry; newly developing service trade;traditional service trade;structure upgrading and coordinating.