陈泽鹏博士论文：服务产品流研究

服务产品流研究
专业：产业组织与管理
作者：陈泽鹏
导师：李江帆教授

摘要

　　随着社会经济的发展和产业结构的演变，服务产品占社会产品的比重不断上升，服务产品在国家和地区之间的流动日益成为一种重要的经济现象。上世纪以来，现代通讯和信息网络技术迅猛发展，对服务产品的跨区域流动产生“革命性”影响，使得原本要求消费者和生产者必须面对面接触才能进行的服务交易可以远距离甚至跨境进行，突破了服务产品跨区域流动的技术性障碍，而全球贸易自由化和区域经济一体化的发展趋势则在一定程度上突破了服务产品跨区域流动的制度性障碍，这种技术性障碍和制度性障碍的突破将使得服务产品跨区域流动获得“爆炸性”增长。在国际层面，服务贸易占全球贸易总额的比重逐步上升，服务业转移速度不断加快，离岸服务外包异军突起，跨国服务企业迅速发展，大大促进了服务产品的跨国流动，无论是最终消费型服务产品，还是中间投入型服务产品，其跨国流动的规模均获得快速增长。在国内层面，北京、上海和广州等国家中心城市已形成以服务经济为主体的产业结构，其服务产品除了满足本地需求之外，有很大一部分用于满足外地需求，成为重要的服务产品输出基地，而且随着各地区“一体化”和“同城化”战略的推进实施，各种阻碍服务产品跨区域流动的制度性和要素性“藩篱”逐渐被拆除，从而促进国内服务产品流动的快速发展。服务产品的流动对国家和地区间的经济联系和产业分工产生重要影响，一方面，服务产品流动是国家和地区间经济联系的重要纽带和表现形式，另一方面，服务产品流动会带来大量的中间投入品以及人员、资金、技术等生产要素的流动，从而对区域经济增长形成一定的溢出效应，并促进区域产业分工和专业化生产。
　　本文系统地阐述了服务产品流的概念、类型、动因、指标体系、需求效应和供给效应，并对中国各大区域和主要城市的服务产品流及其影响作了实证检验，试图构建一个相对完整的服务产品流研究体系。在理论分析方面，本文构建了服务产品流的概念，将服务产品调拨与服务贸易，国内服务产品流与国际服务产品流纳入服务产品流的范畴，突破了以往对服务产品流动的研究只侧重国际服务贸易的局限性，更加完整地揭示服务产品流动的全貌和规律。在此基础上，本文深入探讨了服务产品的可流动性和服务产品流的动因、服务产品流形成区域乘数效应和区域分工促进效应的内在机理。在实证分析方面，本文在分析了区位商、城市流等指标局限性的基础上，提出将投入产出分析法作为服务产品流的重要分析工具。运用地区投入产出表分析了北京、上海、天津等三大直辖市的服务产品流及其对本地区经济发展的影响。运用中国区域间投入产出表分析了中国八大区域间服务产品流动系数、溢出效应、影响力系数和感应度系数，揭示了服务产品流对区域间经济联系的影响。运用克鲁格曼专业化指数描述了中国服务业区域分工的现状，构建前沿生产函数揭示服务业区域分工对服务业发展效率的影响。
关键词：服务产品流投入产出乘数效应溢出

Research on Service Product Flow
Major: Industrial Organization and Management
Name: Chen Zepeng
Supervisor: Prof. Li Jiangfan

Abstract

With the development of economy and the evolvement of industry structure, the proportion of service products in social products has increased constantly and its flow between countries and regions is becoming an important economical phenomenon. Since last century, rapid development of modern communication and information internet technology has“revolutionary” influence on the flow of service products among regions, which makes long-distant or even international service trade possible. It overcomes technological barriers in service product flow among regions, and the trend of global trade liberalization and regional economic integration overcomes systematical barrier, both of which would light an “explosive” increase in service product flow. Internationally, the proportion of service trade in global trade volume has gone up continuously with service industry transfer ,offshore service outsourcing and multinational service industry are all developing rapidly, which greatly promote service products, whatever ultimate consuming or intermediate input type, flow from one country to another. Domestically, national center city such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou has already formed an industry structure with service economy as its body and has become an important export base of service industry flow in the country for their service products service not only locally but also for other cities mostly. What’s more, systematical and elementary barriers that impede service product flow multinational would be gradually removed as city integration put to effect, which therefore accelerates the development of domestic service product flow. And it exerts a weighty influence on economy connection and industry division among regions. On the one hand, the flow is an important link and manifestation of economy connection among counties and regions. On the other hand, the flow can bring large intermediate inputs and flow of factors such as people, capital, technology, so as to make a spillover effect on regional economy increase and promote regional industry division and producing specification.

This paper systematically illustrates the concept, type, motive, indicator system, as well as demand and supply effect of service product flow, and makes experimental analyses on service product flow and its influence in major cities of China, trying to build a relatively complete research system of service product flow. From the area of theoretical analysis, the paper constructs the concept of service product flow under which subsumes service products allocating and trading, domestic service product flow and international service product flow, breaking the limitation of laying special emphasis on international service trade in the past, and so more completely reveals the picture and law of service product flow. On this basis, the paper probes deeply into the flow ability of service products, the motivation of service product flow, as well as the inner mechanism of its multiplier effect and the facilitation effect of regional division of industry. From the area of empirical analysis, the input-output analysis method is proposed as an important analyzing tool based on studying the quota limitation of location quotient and urban flow. Regional input-output table is used to analyze the service product flow and its influence on local in three municipalities, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin. China interregional input-output table is also used in the paper to analyze flow coefficient, spillover effect, influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient of service products in eight major China regions, which reveals the influence of service product flow on regions economy connection. Krugman Specialization Index is employed to depict the current situation of China’s service industry region division, and to construct Frontier Production Function to show service region division’s influence on the efficiency of service development.

Key words: service product flow, input-output, multiplier effect，spillover

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陈泽鹏博士论文：服务产品流研究