第一章是绪论，涵盖问题的提出、相关文献资料综述、论文研究思路研究方法与框架体系以及相关问题说明四个部分。

第二章研究发达国家工业化进程中与后工业社会时期第三产业内部结构演变趋势，以及趋势生成的原因及其对经济增长与发展的影响，并根据所拟合的发达国家第三产业内部结构模型，分析第三产业某些分支行业占GDP比重与占全社会就业比重的饱和点。第二章得出主要结论如下。第一，网络效应型服务业（涵盖商业、交通运输业与金融保险业）在发达国家工业化进程中占据最重要的地位——工业化中后期此类服务业占第三产业产出与就业的50%-80%，根本原因在于，此类服务业发展与工业增长、市场深化之间存在相辅相成的关系——相互促进、相互制约。第二，第三产业内部结构演变的一般趋势体现为：伴随现代经济增长进程的深化，第三产业占GDP比重与传统服务业（包括商业与运输仓储）占第三产业的产出比重负相关，与现代服务业（包括金融保险、房地产、商务服务）以及和人们身心素质、生活水准提升关系密切的服务业（包括教育医疗、文化娱乐）占第三产业的产出比重正相关。第三，第三产业某些分支行业如商业、运输仓储业、政府服务（不含其提供的教育医疗服务）占GDP与占全社会就业的比重存在饱和点，详见正文。第四，第三产业内部结构演变的一般趋势顺应经济发展的内在要求，充分体现经济发展的全面内涵。

第三章研究不同经济发展水平的发展中国家近几十年来第三产业内部结构演变趋势以及与发达国家历史时期的差异及其成因与影响。第三章得出的主要结论如下。第一，不同收入水平的发展中国家，以传统服务为主要内容的商业旅店、运输通讯占GDP与占全社会就业的比重不存在显著差异，以现代服务为主要内容的金融保险房地产商务服务、社会服务、政府服务等行业部门的产出与就业比重存在显著或一定的差异。后一类服务业伴随人均收入水

平提高比重提升，表明第三产业内部结构演进的方向。第二，低收入、中低收入发展中国家，工业、服务业、商业旅店运输通讯金融保险类服务业的相对生产率分别明显高于、低于、低于发达国家历史同期水平。第三，不同于发达国家（尤其是老牌工业国）历史时期的情形——工业成为农业剩余劳力吸呐的主要领域，发展中国家的服务业尤其是传统服务业成为其剩余劳力的主要吸呐领域，这对发展中国家造成积极、消极双重影响。

第四章深入分析我国改革开放以来第三产业内部结构的演变趋势及其与相近发展水平发展中国家的差异，剖析其成因与影响，并依据我国“十五”时期和二十一世纪初期经济发展的时代背景与发展态势以及第三产业内部结构演变的一般趋势，提出我国第三产业内部结构调整、优化的政策建议，最后，拟合了我国第三产业内部结构模型，预测2010年与2020年我国第三产业分支行业的比重。第四章得出的主要结论如下。第一，传统服务业商业餐饮业是我国第三产业中比重最大的分类服务业，我国第三产业比重与相对生产率的变化趋势深受其影响。这一特征反映出我国第三产业内部结构层次较低，第三产业尚处于低水平发展阶段。第二，20世纪90年代，我国金融保险业占GDP产出比重下降，科教文卫占全社会就业比重迅速下降，这些现象违背第三产业内部结构演变的一般趋势。第三，与相近水平发展中国家相比：我国传统流通服务业商业餐饮业的相对生产率明显低于后者同类服务水平；以享受、发展消费资料型服务与公共服务为主要内容的社会、政府服务比重，我国亦与后者同类服务有一定差距。第四，依据我国“十五”时期和二十一世纪初期经济发展的时代背景与发展态势以及第三产业内部结构演变的一般趋势，提出我国第三产业内部结构调整优化的政策建议：重点发展属于第三产业第二层次的生产、生活服务业；加速发展科教文卫此类属于第三产业第三层次的服务业，并拓展属于第三产业第四层次、提供经济社会发展所需公共服务的政府部门；变革属于第三产业第一层次的传统流通服务业；消除阻碍新兴服务业发展的制度掣肘，积极推动其市场化进程。第五，根据所拟合的第三产业内部结构模型预测出2010年与2020年第三产业及其分支行业的产出、就业比重，并对预测作了相应调整，得到以下结论：2010年、2020年我国第三产业产出比重大致分别是45%、55%-65%；2010年、2020年我国第三产业就业比重大致分别是36%、48%-53%。第三产业各分支行业2010、2020年的比重预测见正文。

本文利用实证研究与比较研究的方法得出的研究成果对于推进我国第三产业内部结构层次性、规律性演进以及我国经济结构调整优化、经济发展与小康社会全面建设都具有较重要的现实意义。

关键词：第三产业，内部结构，产出结构，就业结构，演变趋势

ABSTRACT

The development of tertiary industry ,closely related to China’s economic growth, economic structural improvement and the well-to-do society construction, is of great significance in China at the beginning of 21 century. Since tertiary industry has lots of branches ,deeply analyzing its development will involve its structure. The objective of the thesis is to discuss the long-term internal structural evolution of tertiary industry in both output and employment. The thesis consists of four parts.

Part One is introduction. It comprises emergence of problem, introduction of relative documents, the research train of thought and structure of the research system and illustration of relative problems.

Part Two is an analysis of the internal structural evolution of tertiary industry in the main developed countries over the long period of industrialization and the post-industrial society. The causes and effects of the evolution are also analyzed. Then the internal structural model of the tertiary industry of the main developed countries is established to find the proportional saturation of some service trades.  The main conclusions of this part are as follows: (1) Over the long period of industrialization of the developed countries, trade, transportation and finance play an important role, these services developing complementing industry’s increasing and market deepening. (2) Tertiary industry’s output proportion (of GDP) negatively correlates to the traditional services’ output proportion and positively correlates to the contemporary services’ proportion (within tertiary industry). (3) Such service trades as trade, transportation and government sector have proportional saturation(of GDP and of total employment). (4) The evolution of tertiary industry internal structure complies with internal requests of economic development and embodies its internal contents.

In Part Three, the author makes an analysis of the internal structural evolution of tertiary industry in the main developing countries in the recent thirty years. The author compares the internal structure of tertiary industry of the developing countries with that of the developed countries over the historical period and analyzed the differences between the former and the latter and the factors that determined the differences. The main conclusions of this part are as follows:

 (1) Among different national income developing countries, differences exist in the contemporary services’ proportion, not in the traditional services’ proportion. (2) Low and low-middle income developing countries’ industrial productivity is higher than that of developed countries at the same historical period, but as to the productivity of the service sector and trade, transportation, communication and finance, the former is lower than the latter. (3) Different with the developed countries at the same historical period, tertiary industry, not secondary industry, has become the main sector of surplus labor absorption in the developing countries, which brings positive and passive effects to these countries.

Based on the analyses of the first three parts, in Part Four, the author further discusses the internal structural evolution of China’s tertiary industry in the period of reform and open and contrasts the structure with that of the same income developing countries. The author discusses the causes and effects of the evolution and structural differences and then puts forwards the idea of the internal structural improvement of China’ tertiary industry and the policies and measures for that. Finally, the author establishes the internal structural model of China’s tertiary industry to forecast the proportion of China’s important service trades in 2010 and 2020. The main conclusions of this part are as follows: (1) The trends of China’s tertiary industry’s proportion and productivity are deeply influenced by the traditional services----trade and catering services . That indicates China’s low level both in tertiary industry’s development and its internal structure. (2) The internal structural evolution of China’s tertiary industry doesn’t comply with the normal evolution of that, such as finance and insurance’s output proportion decreasing, education and health care’s employment proportion decreasing, and so on. (3) Contrasted with the same income developing countries, China’s trade and catering services’ productivity is lower than that of the latter while its social and government services’ proportion is also lower than that of the latter. (4) On the basis of the times background and trend of economic development and the normal evolution of tertiary industry’s internal structure, the author puts forwards the policies of the internal structural improvement of China’s tertiary industry. They are: to put more emphases to producer and consumer services, to fasten science, education, culture and health care and widen government sector which provides public services, to reform traditional transactional services, to abolish institutional obstacles in developing burgeoning services and promote their marketabilisation. (5) According to the forecast of tertiary industry internal structural model and the adjustment, China’s tertiary industry’s output proportion in 2010 and 2020 is 45%, 55-65%, and its employment proportion is 36%, 48-53%.

This research is of momentous current significance. It helps further the development of China’s tertiary industry based on the law and trend of structural change of tertiary industry, China’s economic structural improvement and the well-to-do society’s construction.

Key words: tertiary industry，internal structure，structure of output，structure of employment，evolution